Only Garrett Jones (three of 108) had a smaller percentage of GDPs with a minimum of 100 opportunities. I was just saying the other day that there hasnt been a free agent whos so valuable in this particular waya combination of very good performance and youthsince A-Rod in 2000. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball - playercard - FanGraphs Staff Two - Jason Heyward The grounders are just about all pulled. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . Gavin Lux is likely . Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). by Handedness, Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency, Effectively Wild Episode 761: An Offseason Friday Gallimaufry, The Best of FanGraphs: November 2-6, 2015. The No. But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. Chicago Cubs. 5 seed Indiana State Sycamores (22-11, 13-7 MVC) in the MVC Tournament Saturday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 3:30 PM on CBS Sports Network. Teams should, and likely do, look at adding years to a contract as spreading out money over a longer time period rather than seeking an extra year of value. Depending on ones point of view, it was an effort that was either an improvement in his development as a still-young hitter or a disturbing blight on his future value. Gavin Lux's Knee Injury Further Compromises Dodgers' New-Look Infield After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly Jeff Zimmerman found that speedy players, like Heyward, age better than the rest of the baseball population. Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. $8? ESPN rated the oufielder 11th in the system, Baseball America had him 12th, and The Athletic rated De Paula 18th. This spring, Heyward has hit 17 grounders, and hes pulled all but one of them. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. That search reveals the following players. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. From 26 to 35, the group got better offensively and the only player who completely busted was Carey Patterson. But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . The games, as you well know, havent mattered yet. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. Heywards production, meanwhile, has been excellent from an early age, similar to multiple Hall of Famers. Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. News; Wikipedia: . Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. Looking solely at defense, these are the types of players who compare with Heyward. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Thats just how it goes. This figure is not a conclusory number or necessarily the best way for projections, but simply another method in the attempt to find a likely value for Jason Heyward. My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? How much will he be worth? 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted For instance, Heyward, batting primarily in the leadoff spot for the first time in his career, put up a solid .351 OBP, scored 74 runs and stole 20 bases at an impressive 83% success rate, all while batting .271, the second-best mark of his big league tenure. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. Just how healthy is Heyward? The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). Braves news: Surprise candidate emerges for potential rotation spot Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. Heaney added that, in the regular season, he probably wouldnt have thrown that pitch in that situation. Lacking in top shelf power, Heyward still provided solid numbers on offense, and after a disappointing start with he Cardinals, he hit .306/.375/.455 with a wRC+ of 130 from the beginning of May to the end of the season. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. Limiting Heyward comps solely to free agents leaves little by way of realistic comparison. If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. Thats been fairly consistent. That was awesome, Kapler said. . And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). Interestingly, although Heyward swung less frequently than in any season since his 2010 debut, he finished with a 10.3% walk rate thats below his career average and set a new personal low for pitches per plate appearance. A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted But, man oh man, do people ever love to talk about Jason Heyward not hitting for enough power. by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Now, they are tasked with turning things around this year, in what should be a competitive National League once again. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. Heywards main drawback, perhaps only drawback, as a player seeking more than $100 million is his lack of power. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. It would be a tragedy if nagging injuries keep him from playing to his full potential. Im not all that mad about it. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. But for now, we can revel in the fact that Jason Heyward, yeah he does a pretty good Mike Trout impression. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. FOX Sports - Rowan Kavner 1d. As expected, their value on defense drops over the next ten years, but a curious thing has happened to their offensive numbers simultaneously. For the first method, we assume the only information we know is age, WAR, and total number of plate appearances. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10 All. Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . Jason Heyward opens baseball academy in Chicago from TrueBlueLA.com at 2/4/2023 5:04:00 AM. Heaney then tossed a middle-middle fastball, hoping for an easy strike. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. We're asking for your help to make it. Sources - Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, MLB.com, Baseball Reference. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is. I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. Jason Heyward's Surprising New Strategy for - FanGraphs Baseball Ronald Guzmnex-first baseman for the Texas Rangers, is pumping out 97-98 fastballs. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heyward will get paid. Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. All this before you look at his 11 home runs, easily a career low, less than the 14 he put up in two separate seasons when he averaged just 448 plate appearances. But in the previous five years, he had bounced between eight different organizations, unable to find his footing in the majors before an opportunity arose with the Dodgers. Thats 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. His BABIP this season is .256, while his expected BABIP sits around .315. "I've talked . When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. Alan Trejo will likely move into the second base spot with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. Consider this an expansion on Matt Klaasens crowning of Jason Heyward as the King oF Little Things if you will. Jason Heyward - Bleacher Report Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. Dodgers spring training: Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. Just a couple years ago, it was Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton that were tearing up baseball, looking like an unprecedented pair of rookie talents ready to continue on into the stratosphere together. Red Sox employ loophole to MLB shift ban against Joey Gallo Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. Biggio knows right field well. He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Perhaps its fitting, if random, that Heywards most recent highlights on MLB.com are all home-run-saving catches. The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. But thats never safe against a hitter like Betts, who launched it deep over the left-center-field wall at Surprise Stadium. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts * as the source of default lineups. Jason Heyward pitch% heatmaps. by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Jason Heyward - Heat Maps - Pitch% | FanGraphs Baseball Keep looking at him, and also keep looking at his numbers, as the season begins and wears on. Tag: Jason Heyward | Community Blog FanGraphs Mugs. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Those are just selective links, but they show Heyward with a right-center approach, and a good amount of batted-ball authority. As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. Matt Carpenter was the reverse. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors That should tell you all you need to know about the Blue Jays plans for their fourth outfield spot, and this assignment is something he plans to grab with both hands. The group as a whole averaged nearly four wins per season from age 26 through age 30, which would be a very good result for Jason Heyward. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Jason Heyward Stats, Fantasy & News | MiLB.com Whatever the name, it might become a problem for them. Buy Low on Jason Heyward | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball As was the case with the offensive player-comps group, Heyward is more accomplished than almost all of the players on this list. Jason Heyward Reality Check | FanGraphs Membership Maybe you heard that some guy named Jason Heyward made the Atlanta Braves' Opening Day roster. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. In fact, only teammate Michael Bourn managed more defensive value all around from the outfield. There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Jason Heyward, The Next Great Free Agent | FanGraphs Membership I cant wait to see how this turns out. by Retrosheet. 2023 Jason Heyward Projections All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. Our premise is that their bad (or Cubs, Heyward Agree To $184 Million, Eight-Year Deal Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. Jason Heyward is good | The Hardball Times - tht.fangraphs.com According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? What follows is an attempt to find similar players to Heyward using various methods: WAR, offense, defense, and a hybrid of offense and defense. Carpenter upped his power output, and his grounder pull rate jumped from 53% to 68%. Whether he finds a home with Cleveland certainly wont depend on whether Quinn can maintain his power output. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Heyward is actually the most accomplished offensive player in the group due to being worth more than 20 runs above average on the bases, but strictly as a hitter, these are the players with similar profiles. Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. When signing long-term contracts, teams tend to pay them out equally over the length of the contract. Team Offense, New York Yankees | baseballmusings.com Interesting stuff, but isnt this potentially terrible news for Heyward given that the spring spray chart only shows a significant pull increase on ground balls rather than all contact and pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play? Averaging out to a league average player for a total of ten years is a decent feat. by Retrosheet. Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. P. J. Higgins - Wikipedia Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . So its difficult to shake the tinge of disappointment thats come to hang around Heyward in the past couple of years, not necessarily because hes done anything wrong he is, after all, just 25 years old and boasts a career .345 wOBA but because in him we see fantasy studliness, and cant help but feel let down each year when he falls short of making good on his immense potential. With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .260/.335/.406 for a 96 wRC+ He seemed. by Retrosheet. To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. In 2022, Heyward will earn a base salary of $22,000,000, with a total salary of $24,500,000. FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. He went second to home on a single. Cubs To Release Jason Heyward At End Of Season Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. The lowest member of the group, Willie Randolph, still averaged more than three wins per season. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Hes still really young . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. by Retrosheet. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors With a bad shoulder and back luck, he still held his own in 2011 But as far as I believe, batted-ball distributions arent as noisy as, say, BABIP. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. For a big man, he can run a little It took the Dodgers six games into their Cactus League schedule, but they finally achieved the ultimate spring . Composite Dodgers 2023 team prospect rankings Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. The Fascinating Jason Heyward Contract | FanGraphs Baseball So how did he end up with some of the best non-stolen-base baserunning numbers in the game? Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. Its easy to lose sight of Heywards age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. One spring of spring-training data. The line was rough from lefty starter Austin Gomber on Tuesday against the Rangers four runs on five hits, including a Clint Frazier home run, while recording two outs. Jason Heyward as Mike Trout | FanGraphs Baseball Heres a bomb to right. Cubs president Jed Hoyer announced Monday the club intends to release veteran outfielder Jason Heyward from the final year of his deal at the end of the 2022 season. His plate discipline improved as well, as he set a new career best with a 15.1% strikeout rate, fueled by his best SwStr% and Contact% rates yet. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. Mark Kotsay did not do well overall, but he was actually averaging around three wins per season from 26 to 30 before having a negative value as his career wound down. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. by Retrosheet. Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. Trejo, 27, is fine with pushing for all the starts he can at second if thats his opportunity to be in the lineup. Prior to the . Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. Obviously, Heyward is nowhere near as good as Rodriguez was then, but the argument for blowing the budget to sign him is a similar one. The other groups, with players similar to some aspect of Heywards game, but inferior in other ways, make Heyward a high-quality player, one perhaps worthy of a $200 million contract, but not a Hall of Famer. Jason Heyward Positions: Rightfielder, Centerfielder and Leftfielder Bats: Left Throws: Left 6-5 , 240lb (196cm, 108kg) Born: August 9, 1989 (Age: 33-206d) in Ridgewood, NJ us More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 1x All-Star 2016 World Series 5x Gold Glove Wilson Overall Def Player 22 22 22 Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free. Its impossible for anyone outside of the Braves training room and front office to assess Heywards health. So I was like, Im just gonna kind of throw it at him down the middle. And he hit it out. Dodgers vs. Angels game thread - True Blue LA Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. Time now for our annual spin through players whose luck in 2022 was worse (or better) than their fortune deserved.